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TOPIC: A potential critical case on the Pyrenees?

A potential critical case on the Pyrenees? 10 years 3 months ago #52

The latest run of COSMO-I7 (18/10/2012 h.00UTC) is particularly pessimistic for the next 48-72 hours in Catalonia and eastern Pyrenees.

Maximum accumulation above 600mm/48h between tomorrow and the day after are forecast to fall on Ripoll, in the province of Girona.

Another 100mm or so is expected (same run) for today on the same area, approximately.

As some might know already, Catalonia and the eastern Pyrenees are very close to COSMO-I7 western boundary and this is certainly an issue for its reliability, at least quantitatively.

On the other hand, also the global model IFS-ECMWF (which provides COSMO-I7 with IC/BC) put some 120-150mm/48h, even if there is a non negligible eastwards shift of the rainfall maxima.

The current mesoscale situation sees orographic precipitation occurring on France (southern Cevennes). The fluxes are turning from SE to ESE with low rainfall rates (5-10mm/h)
due to the convergence of the moist air from the Gulf of Genoa along the coast and the southerly mediterranean flux.

By early Friday, the latter will be probably interacting with an incoming atlantic cold front leading way for the heavy orographic rains forecast on Spain.
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